Earnings

The quarterly cycle of analyst Earnings Estimates and company Earnings Reports can be an important driver of stock price activity. Chaikin Analytics presents Earnings Per Share (EPS) information in multiple places — this section will explain where this data comes from, how it is processed for display, and how you can use it to improve your investment decisions.

Source

Chaikin uses Earnings information from S&P

S&P

Earnings and Estimate data displayed in most Chaikin applications is sourced from S&P

We receive 3 types of Earnings-related information from S&P:

• Quarterly Earnings Reports are processed nightly. They include newly reported EPS values for the current quarter and fiscal year, and are used to generate:
  • Earnings Surprise Hot Lists
  • Earnings Icons
  • Earnings information in the Chart Header.
  • Earnings Surprise Alerts.

  Earnings Reports are also received at multiple times during the trading day—these intraday updates can generate Earnings Surprise Alerts, Earnings icons, and will affect Chart header information. Earnings Surprise Hotlists will be updated the following morning.

• Consensus Estimate Revisions are processed nightly. These include changes to the average Analyst EPS Estimate for the current reporting quarter. (We do not process estimates from individual analysts.) These are used to generate:
  • Earnings Estimate Icons
  • Earnings Revision Alerts
  • Earnings Revision Hot Lists.
• Company Fundamentals. Basic company fundamental information – including current and historical EPS and Estimate data – is updated daily prior to market open. It is used for:
  • Stock Detail in the Chart Header
  • Historical Earnings on the Chart
  • Tables in Power Gauge Reports and Portfolio Health Check
  • Earnings Report Dates in the Screener.

S&P Compustat

Data used in the Chaikin Power Gauge model is provided by our portfolio modeling vendor Portfolio123, which sources its data from S&P Compustat. Information is updated daily after each trading day, prior to the next market open, and is used to generate:

• Inputs to the Chaikin Power Gauge stock rating
• Power Gauge component and factor “slider” displays
• Language derived from factor values in Chaikin Power Gauge Reports.

Earnings Alerts

Earnings Reports and Consensus Estimate revisions generate Alerts, which are shown in the Alert Window accessible from the EPS icon in the Watchlist:

Bullish & Bearish Earnings Surprises. Companies which have reported quarterly EPS different from the analyst consensus estimate, since the last trading day. 

• Bullish & Bearish Estimate Revisions. Companies whose consensus earnings estimate for the upcoming quarter has changed (by at least $.02 and 2%), since the last trading day.

These Alerts should be considered a “call to attention”, if you own or are considering trading a stock. They are described in depth in the Watchlist section.

Earnings Hot Lists

The “Chaikin Hot Lists” section of the List Navigator contains an “Earnings Hot Lists” folder with lists of stocks triggering Bullish & Bearish Earnings Surprises and Estimate Revision Alerts today.

Note: Hot Lists are updated once a day before the open; stocks which have triggered Earnings Surprises during the trading day will not be included, though these will show in the Alerts Window. Hot Lists also check to ensure a stock has had a valid Power Gauge Rating for at least 3 months, while Alerts do not.

The Earnings Hot Lists folder also contains an Upcoming Earnings Ideas list. These are manually selected stocks reporting Earnings this week (updated Sundays).

Icons & Chart Header

The Watchlist and Panel View display icons to quickly identify stocks with Upcoming Earnings, Earnings Surprises, and Estimate Revisions, and relevant Earnings information will be shown in the Chart Header when you chart a stock.

Note: To see Earnings info in the Chart Header, widen your browser. If a stock does not have a valid Next or Last Report Date, you will see “No earnings data.” (this includes ETFs).

Upcoming Earnings

A grey EPS icon indicates a stock reporting Earnings today or tomorrow.

It may be accompanied by a Bullish or Bearish Warning (“!”).

Hover over the icon to see information about a stock’s upcoming Earnings.

The top section shows Next Report Date, Fiscal Quarter, and Quarterly Consensus Estimate for the upcoming Earnings Report, and Year Ago Quarterly EPS.

If there is a green or red Warning icon (“!”), there will be a message explaining it:

A Bearish Warning ahead of Earnings can be triggered by:

• Power Gauge Earnings Surprise or Estimate Trend factor being Very Bearish (bottom 20% of the Russell 3000)
• A recent drop in the Consensus Estimate or average Analyst Rating.

A Bullish Warning ahead of Earnings can be triggered by:

• Power Gauge Earnings Surprise or Estimate Trend factor being Very Bullish (top 20% of the Russell 3000)
• A recent increase in the Consensus Estimate or average Analyst Rating.

Chart Header

Generally, when you chart a stock, you will see info about the stock’s upcoming Earnings report in the Chart Header:

• Report Date
• Fiscal Quarter reported
• Consensus Earnings Estimate for current quarter.

Hover over the “EPS” icon to see Upcoming Earnings detail.

Earnings Surprises

 For 5 trading days after an Earnings report, the EPS icon in the Watchlist will turn green, red, or black depending on whether actual Earnings beat, missed, or matched the consensus estimate. If there was an Earnings Surprise, you will see a Surprise icon (“!“).

Hover over the EPS icon for detail about the completed Earnings report, including:

• Report Date
• Fiscal Quarter reported
• Quarterly EPS reported & change vs. 1 year ago
• Quarterly Revenue reported & change vs. 1 year ago
• Consensus Estimate
• Amount by which the reported EPS missed or beat the estimate.

Chart Header

If the stock you are charting has reported Earnings within the past 5 trading days, you will see information about the most recent report in the Chart Header:

• Report Date
• Actual Reported Quarterly EPS
• Consensus Estimate at time of report
• A Bullish Earnings Surprise (actual EPS greater than estimate) will be colored green.
• A Bearish Earnings Surprise (actual EPS less than estimate) will be colored red.

Hover over the “EPS” icon to see Earnings Detail.

Estimate Revisions

You will see a green or red EST icon or for any stock with an Estimate Revision Alert (which isn’t displaying an upcoming or recently reported EPS icon).

Estimate Revision Alerts are processed nightly after each weekday, and generate an Alert for stocks where the consensus has moved more than 2c (and more than 2%) in either direction.

Hover to see the old and new consensus estimate.

Chart Header

If the stock you are charting is displaying an “EST” icon, you will see Estimate Revision info in the Chart Header, including Fiscal Quarter, old and new estimate.

Hover over the EPS icon to see Upcoming Earnings detail.

Historical Earnings on Chart

Click the EPS icon on the Chart Header to see where a company has previously reported Earnings.

At a glance, you can see not only whether a stock has tended to make or miss expectations, but how the stock reacted soon after each Report. This can be helpful in determining a plan of action around an Earnings Report.

A Green EPS icon indicates a report that beat expectations, Red EPS indicates a miss, and Grey indicates that actual reported EPS was equal to the Consensus Estimate.

Hover over an EPS icon to see the quarterly Consensus Estimate at the time of the report, actual reported quarterly EPS, and amount by which the company beat or missed expectations.

Chaikin Power Gauge

Press the drop-down button to expand the Chart Header and see Power Gauge components for the stock you are charting.

Press (+ ) next to any component to expand its factors.

Earnings-related components and factors are described below. Definitions for all model factors are listed in the Chaikin Power Gauge Factor Guide.

Power Gauge data is provided by Portfolio123, sourced from S&P Compustat.

Earnings Surprises

The Earnings Component consists of 5 Earnings-related factors which identify companies with steadily growing Earnings, managing surprises well, which are not overvalued on a projected basis.

Factor	Definition
Earnings Growth	Weighted average of 3-5 year EPS growth
Earnings Surprise	Weighted average of recent quarterly EPS surprises
Earnings Trend	EPS %change, trailing 12 months
Projected P/E	Current price / mean analyst EPS estimate, next fiscal year (Relative to Industry)
Earnings Consistency	EPS consistency, recent and projected fiscal years.

Factor scores are computed by evaluating the formula for each stock and ranking them to determine each stock’s position in the Russell 3000 universe or Industry Group. These ranks are displayed as a ‘slider’ with 5 positions from Very Weak to Very Strong:

The Earnings Component value is determined by weighting the five individual Earnings factors (using a proprietary weighting scheme) and combining them into a composite score, which is also displayed as a ‘slider’ with values from Very Weak to Very Strong. The Earnings Component score represents 30% of the overall Power Gauge Rating value.

Estimate Trend Factor

Estimate Trend

13-week change, mean analyst EPS estimate, next fiscal year

One might assume that current Consensus Estimate levels would be a good indication of future price activity. In actuality, current Estimates are generally already factored into current prices and are not generally predictive. What we have found to be predictive, however, is the movement of Consensus Estimates, or “Estimate Trend”.

Often, Wall Street analysts covering a company will raise or lower their estimates in coordinated fashion preceding a price move. Our backtesting has found a positive correlation between the 13-week change in the upcoming fiscal year mean estimate and relative price performance 1-6 months in the future.

The Estimate Trend factor looks at this value, ranked across the Russell 3000 universe, and displays it as a ‘slider’ with a value from Very Weak to Very Strong.

Company Fundamental Data

Stock Detail in Chart Header

Press the drop-down button to expand the Chart Header and then press the Previous/Next arrows (     ) to slide through panels of stock detail information including Fundamentals, Performance, Earnings, and Ratios.  You may also view a Power Gauge Report to obtain more detailed information both on previous and projected earnings.  

Earnings data is sourced from Standard and Poors, and is updated prior to market open each morning.

Screener

Screen by Earnings Date to find stocks with recent or upcoming Earnings Reports.

Today/Yesterday	Company reported Earnings either yesterday or today
Next Trading Day	Company reports Earnings tomorrow
Within the Next Week	Company reports Earnings within the next 7 days
Within the Past Week	Company has reported Earnings within the last 7 days
Within the Next Two Weeks	Company reports Earnings within the next 14 days
Within the Next Month	Company reports Earnings within the next month

Note: Earnings report dates are indexed for Screening before each market open. When a company reports during the day, its “Last Report Date” and “Next Report Date” will be updated to reflect this the following day. All dates are current calendar day, Eastern U.S. time.